A College Football Playoff

Ok, so everybody knows the college football BCS system is kind of silly.  Rather than allowing competitors for the national title to be determined on the field, we allow a computer to decide.  A classic over-application of statistical methods, I say.  But then again, I otherwise very much support the over-application of statistical methods.

So while we are at it, let’s just let the computer do the whole thing: set up a playoff (which we all want anyway, right?), determine the winner of each game, and ultimately the national champ.  For one thing, this would be much easier on those poor college football players.  They can just sit back comfortably on the couch, rather than banging their heads together on the field all the way through December and January.

But seriously, let’s set up a playoff for this year and see how it would play out.  We’ll start by copying the format of the NFL playoffs.  Take 12 teams; the top four get byes, and the other eight participate in a sort of “wild card” play-in weekend.  Take the top 10 bowl games (plus the national championship game), assign each one to a playoff game, and play it out on the field.  Or in this case, on a computer.

For team selection, let’s start with the champions of the six conferences that get automatic BCS bids (ACC: Clemson, Big Ten: Wisconsin, Pac-12: Oregon, SEC: LSU, Big 12: Oklahoma State, Big East: West Virginia).  Add the next five highest-ranked schools according the BCS rankings, for at-large bids: Alabama, Stanford, Arkansas, Boise State, and Kansas State.

This leaves one bid for my personal favorite, the FCS (Division I-AA) champ, which happened to be North Dakota State this year.  In real life, this would mean that the first game for NDSU would actually (including the FCS playoffs) be the fifth week in a row of playoff football for them.  If the school were to then miraculously run the table and win the FBS title too, that would mean a marathon 18-game season for them; but whatever, I think they deserve a shot.  Besides, the people of North Dakota might be thankful for the added entertainment in the middle of a long winter.

Anyway, let’s give the four highest-ranked conference champs (with apologies to Alabama and Stanford) the four byes, and the other two conference winners the best seeds for “wild card” weekend.  The schedule is now ready.  So then, how might we allow the computer to determine the winners?

Prior to bowl season, each team gets a BCS rating.  We’ll translate those to probabilities to simulate head-to head matchups.  For example, if Alabama plays Boise State, Alabama will have a 92% chance of winning.  If they play LSU, however, the Crimson Tide will only have a 35% chance of success.

Then I’ll generate (objectively of course) a random number between 0 and 100 for each game; if I generate a number less than 92 for the Alabama-Boise State matchup, for example, Alabama will win.  If I generate something between 92 and 100, however, then the Broncos will pull the upset.  The closer to 92 the number is, the closer the game; e.g., if I generate 91.7, then that means the teams must have battled through several overtimes before a winner was decided.

Throw in some average stats for each team on points for and against during the season, and we can even simulate the score.  As a last step, I’ll make an adjustment if the game is played within 1,000 or so miles of a school’s campus.  If LSU plays in New Orleans, for example, their chances of success should increase, right?  Ok, so here goes!

WILD CARD WEEKEND
Alamo Bowl (San Antonio)
Arkansas 47, Stanford 41 (3 OT)

Holiday Bowl (San Diego)
Alabama 49, Boise State 14

Gator Bowl (Jacksonville, FL)
Kansas State 29, West Virginia 24

Outback Bowl (Tampa)
Clemson 41, North Dakota State 14

Arkansas scored a mild upset in an overtime thriller, while everything else went according to form here.  (Clearly, North Dakota State was just tired.)

QUARTERFINALS
Capital One Bowl (Orlando)
Wisconsin 37, Clemson 21

Cotton Bowl (Arlington, TX)
Oregon 51, Kansas State 21

Orange Bowl (Miami)
Oklahoma State 35, Alabama 14

Sugar Bowl (New Orleans)
LSU 24, Arkansas 23

A lot of people wanted to know if Oklahoma State was better than Alabama this year.  Now the debate is settled, once and for all!  Meanwhile, LSU seems to be struggling.

SEMIFINALS
Fiesta Bowl (Glendale, AZ)
Oklahoma State 47, Oregon 17

Rose Bowl (Pasadena)
LSU 34, Wisconsin 11

Oklahoma State is on a ROLL!  Too bad I haven’t factored momentum into my formulas…

National Championship (New Orleans)
LSU 41, Oklahoma State 27

Well, I guess that settles that.  They might as well not even play the game tonight.  Just give the trophy to LSU.