Dan Gilbert's New York Times piece last week and Sian Beilock's accompanying blog entry have inspired me, too, to address Alex Rodriguez's recent 46 at-bat drought prior to bashing his 600th career home run last Wednesday. Did he really ‘choke’ under the pressure? Was this even real pressure that he faced? I’d like to present a slightly different angle here.
First, I want to clarify whether this was indeed an unusual home run drought for Rodriguez. In addition to the 46 at-bat delay, Gilbert mentioned that the 12-day stretch also included an 0-for-17 streak. Can this be a coincidence? Unlikely. Through Saturday, A-Rod has averaged one home run every 14.5 AB's throughout his career, though that stat has dropped to one every 23 AB's in 2010.
On the other side of that argument, a check of Rodriguez's 2010 game log reveals two homer-less streaks in 2010 that were even longer than his latest one; one of 49 at-bats from June 3-22, and one of 61 at-bats from April 20 to May 9. That is, of A-Rod's 16 between-homer periods in 2010, the latest was his third-longest. By his career standards, then, the stretch between 599 and 600 was likely significantly lengthy. By his 2010 standards, however, it appears it was not.
Then again, Rodriguez' 0-for-17 streak during his quest for 600 was his second-longest hitless streak of 2010, giving way only to a 19 at-bat drought between April 24 and April 30. So let's look into this a little further.
First, I want to clarify whether this was indeed an unusual home run drought for Rodriguez. In addition to the 46 at-bat delay, Gilbert mentioned that the 12-day stretch also included an 0-for-17 streak. Can this be a coincidence? Unlikely. Through Saturday, A-Rod has averaged one home run every 14.5 AB's throughout his career, though that stat has dropped to one every 23 AB's in 2010.
On the other side of that argument, a check of Rodriguez's 2010 game log reveals two homer-less streaks in 2010 that were even longer than his latest one; one of 49 at-bats from June 3-22, and one of 61 at-bats from April 20 to May 9. That is, of A-Rod's 16 between-homer periods in 2010, the latest was his third-longest. By his career standards, then, the stretch between 599 and 600 was likely significantly lengthy. By his 2010 standards, however, it appears it was not.
Then again, Rodriguez' 0-for-17 streak during his quest for 600 was his second-longest hitless streak of 2010, giving way only to a 19 at-bat drought between April 24 and April 30. So let's look into this a little further.
While I am as quick as the next guy to attribute sport performance (lack of) success to mental rather than physical skills, one possible alternative explanation to A-Rod's recent struggles jumps off the page at me. Partway through his 46 at-bat lull, I managed to catch MLB TV analyst Harold Reynolds breaking down how a recent injury was slowing down Rodriguez's swing, in particular his ability to turn on inside fastballs. Sure enough, on July 25, a mere 13 at-bats into his 46, A-Rod was hit on the forearm and left hand by a fastball from Kansas City reliever Blake Wood. Rodriguez had collected six hits in those 13 tries, in fact; after the injury, he proceeded to go 3 for his next 33.
Is the injury just an excuse? Perhaps. Or was it more mental, and he 'choked'? Still quite possible. We can only speculate.
The theory that A-Rod 'choked' also assumes that he felt extra pressure during each one of those 46 at-bats. This, I would argue, is also a matter of speculation. Surely Rodriguez felt more pressure to hit 600 than he did to hit 599, but was he really 'frozen with fear' as Gilbert describes? If you ask the majority of major league players, or even one of those six guys before him to hit 600, I bet they would tell you that competing in the playoffs, or even trying to hit with the game on the line in the ninth inning of a regular season game, is greater pressure. Baseball is a team game, after all, whereas hitting your 600th home run is purely an individual achievement.
Then again, A-Rod has admitted to acting a bit selfish in the past, so maybe he was more nervous than I give him credit for. To speculate even further, Rodriguez is an admitted past steroid user; it is even possible that he felt a twinge of guilt breaking one of baseball's hallowed milestones, knowing that his name may go into the record books with a dreaded asterisk next to it!
Finally, and perhaps most important, Gilbert and Beilock have set A-Rod as an example of how a superstar might be expected to perform under pressure. The problem is, Rodriguez has been observed to perform poorly in these situations before, as Gilbert noted in the similar 28 at-bat drought he endured before his 500th career longball. Why is this a problem? Because, I would argue, not all superstars perform like A-Rod in the clutch. Think Michael Jordan, or Reggie Jackson, or Tiger Woods prior to this year.
Never mind, don't think about Tiger Woods right now. Yikes.
I'll conclude with a check of baseball-reference.com, which reveals how many at-bats it took those other six guys in the 600 home run club to get from 599 to their milestones:
Babe Ruth: 1 (Aug 20-21, 1931)
Hank Aaron: 2 (April 25-27, 1971)
Barry Bonds: 8 (Aug. 6-9, 2002)
Sammy Sosa: 13 (June 15-20, 2007)
Ken Griffey Jr.: 17 (May 31-June 9, 2008)
Willie Mays: 21 (Sep. 15-22, 1969)
As Beilock says, it 'all comes down to the dangers of thinking too much'. It's possible A-Rod was thinking a lot more than those other guys were...
Thanks to @sianbeilock for becoming @ucdpaco's latest Twitter buddy. Or follower, or whatever you call it...
And thanks to Negin Ghavami for the inspiration.
And thanks to Negin Ghavami for the inspiration.
