Monday, August 20, 2012

The Greatest Teams in All of Sports

Occasionally I am called upon to switch my affiliation away from, objectively, the best teams in professional sports: the Sacramento Kings and the San Francisco Giants.  Most often, I am asked to abandon the Kings in favor of Los Angeles’ favorite squad, the Lakers, in light of the facts that I’ve lived in Los Angeles for 11 years now, and the Kings have missed the playoffs now several years in a row.  Add to this that the city of Sacramento has now repeatedly failed to get a new arena deal done, due to ownership that seems questionable at best, making their residence there anything but permanent.  And then there’s the Kings’ star center, DeMarcus Cousins, who complains to the referees constantly and whose maturing process seems to be moving slower than the 405 freeway at rush hour.  In response to all of this, I think the answer is still very clear: the Sacramento Kings are, objectively, the best team in basketball.

Now comes the scandal surrounding the San Francisco Giants and Melky Cabrera, who was setting the world on fire with a .346 batting average prior to his suspension and subsequent admission of the use of testosterone as a steroid.  And, a report that someone known to Melky’s agent made a fake website designed to provide fake evidence to get the suspension overturned.  For Giants fans, it was shocking and slightly depressing.  Personally, I was kind of relieved when Barry Bonds retired a few years ago, since he was often difficult to root for with his prickly personality and inability to avoid steroid accusations.  Indeed, one of the cool things about 2010 World Series triumph was that the team was filled with guys who were easy to cheer for.  Did I mention that the San Francisco Giants won the 2010 World Series?  Ok, just wanted to make sure that I mentioned that they won the 2010 World Series.

Anyway, various folks, such as the Arizona Diamondbacks’ manager Kirk Gibson and catcher Miguel Montero, have seemed kind of angry about the whole Melky situation.  Assuming that the steroids were helping Melky out, then the Giants were cheating by putting him in the lineup every day, and so victories over the Diamondbacks or any other team this year are kind of questionable now.  For now, we have to assume that Giants management had no idea that Melky was doing this, since that is what they claim. Manager Bruce Bochy seems like such a cool guy that if he says he had no idea, then I’d like to believe him.

In fact, I was once put in a similar position as Bochy; the 2006 UCLA Club Tennis squad, under my direction, was disqualified halfway through the USTA National Campus Championships in Austin, Texas for having an ineligible player on its roster.  Indeed, one of our girls had played in a tournament for the UCLA varsity team earlier in the year, which you’re not allowed to do.  She had not told us, however, and we had no idea.  But we had already marched all the way to the national quarterfinals.  So the tournament director was stuck, because while he had to disqualify us, he couldn’t ask us to go back and replay those matches while we removed that player from the roster.  Meanwhile, we were sad, but made the best of it by spending the following day in San Antonio, which was pretty hot even though it was only April.

Anyway, back to my story about the greatest teams in all of sports.  If a team is absolutely terrible and has players with objectionable personalities that use steroids constantly, are they still worth rooting for?  Well, perhaps not.  Certainly the Sacramento Kings haven’t been much fun to cheer for in recent years, and I have struggled at times to gather enough interest to watch their games regularly.  On the other hand, the Giants remain fun to watch, despite Tim Lincecum doing his best impression of, well, Barry Zito this year.

Are we sad about Melky?  Yes, and I will be even less likely to dress up as a Melkman now as compared to before.  Personally, from there I looked to team management, Melky’s (former) teammates, and even the team’s announcers for guidance on how to proceed.  They seemed sad, bewildered and a little angry, but had no choice but to move on without him.  It struck me as kind of like what someone might do after they found out their significant other cheated on them.  In this case, you have to drop your loyalty to the individual who messed up, at least so far as he is not helping the team.  But your loyalty to the team very likely remains.

Sometimes I think it’s funny that we cheer for, and care so much about, teams composed of players that we don’t know, have never met, and who run around a field or court throwing stuff around and hitting other things over fences.  In the case of the Giants, they represent a city that I’ve never lived in, and pretty much only visit for the purposes of the watching the team itself.  But perhaps I shouldn’t question it any more for now, and just say… Goooo GIANTS!

P.S. The Sacramento Kings are going to win the 2013 NBA championship.  You watch!


Monday, January 9, 2012

A College Football Playoff

Ok, so everybody knows the college football BCS system is kind of silly.  Rather than allowing competitors for the national title to be determined on the field, we allow a computer to decide.  A classic over-application of statistical methods, I say.  But then again, I otherwise very much support the over-application of statistical methods.

So while we are at it, let’s just let the computer do the whole thing: set up a playoff (which we all want anyway, right?), determine the winner of each game, and ultimately the national champ.  For one thing, this would be much easier on those poor college football players.  They can just sit back comfortably on the couch, rather than banging their heads together on the field all the way through December and January.

But seriously, let’s set up a playoff for this year and see how it would play out.  We’ll start by copying the format of the NFL playoffs.  Take 12 teams; the top four get byes, and the other eight participate in a sort of “wild card” play-in weekend.  Take the top 10 bowl games (plus the national championship game), assign each one to a playoff game, and play it out on the field.  Or in this case, on a computer.

For team selection, let’s start with the champions of the six conferences that get automatic BCS bids (ACC: Clemson, Big Ten: Wisconsin, Pac-12: Oregon, SEC: LSU, Big 12: Oklahoma State, Big East: West Virginia).  Add the next five highest-ranked schools according the BCS rankings, for at-large bids: Alabama, Stanford, Arkansas, Boise State, and Kansas State.

This leaves one bid for my personal favorite, the FCS (Division I-AA) champ, which happened to be North Dakota State this year.  In real life, this would mean that the first game for NDSU would actually (including the FCS playoffs) be the fifth week in a row of playoff football for them.  If the school were to then miraculously run the table and win the FBS title too, that would mean a marathon 18-game season for them; but whatever, I think they deserve a shot.  Besides, the people of North Dakota might be thankful for the added entertainment in the middle of a long winter.

Anyway, let’s give the four highest-ranked conference champs (with apologies to Alabama and Stanford) the four byes, and the other two conference winners the best seeds for “wild card” weekend.  The schedule is now ready.  So then, how might we allow the computer to determine the winners?

Prior to bowl season, each team gets a BCS rating.  We’ll translate those to probabilities to simulate head-to head matchups.  For example, if Alabama plays Boise State, Alabama will have a 92% chance of winning.  If they play LSU, however, the Crimson Tide will only have a 35% chance of success.

Then I’ll generate (objectively of course) a random number between 0 and 100 for each game; if I generate a number less than 92 for the Alabama-Boise State matchup, for example, Alabama will win.  If I generate something between 92 and 100, however, then the Broncos will pull the upset.  The closer to 92 the number is, the closer the game; e.g., if I generate 91.7, then that means the teams must have battled through several overtimes before a winner was decided.

Throw in some average stats for each team on points for and against during the season, and we can even simulate the score.  As a last step, I’ll make an adjustment if the game is played within 1,000 or so miles of a school’s campus.  If LSU plays in New Orleans, for example, their chances of success should increase, right?  Ok, so here goes!

WILD CARD WEEKEND
Alamo Bowl (San Antonio)
Arkansas 47, Stanford 41 (3 OT)

Holiday Bowl (San Diego)
Alabama 49, Boise State 14

Gator Bowl (Jacksonville, FL)
Kansas State 29, West Virginia 24

Outback Bowl (Tampa)
Clemson 41, North Dakota State 14

Arkansas scored a mild upset in an overtime thriller, while everything else went according to form here.  (Clearly, North Dakota State was just tired.)

QUARTERFINALS
Capital One Bowl (Orlando)
Wisconsin 37, Clemson 21

Cotton Bowl (Arlington, TX)
Oregon 51, Kansas State 21

Orange Bowl (Miami)
Oklahoma State 35, Alabama 14

Sugar Bowl (New Orleans)
LSU 24, Arkansas 23

A lot of people wanted to know if Oklahoma State was better than Alabama this year.  Now the debate is settled, once and for all!  Meanwhile, LSU seems to be struggling.

SEMIFINALS
Fiesta Bowl (Glendale, AZ)
Oklahoma State 47, Oregon 17

Rose Bowl (Pasadena)
LSU 34, Wisconsin 11

Oklahoma State is on a ROLL!  Too bad I haven’t factored momentum into my formulas…

National Championship (New Orleans)
LSU 41, Oklahoma State 27

Well, I guess that settles that.  They might as well not even play the game tonight.  Just give the trophy to LSU.