Re: The truth about Kobe Bryant in crunch time

Ahhh ... Kobe Bryant.  The most popular athlete in Southern California, the athlete who has tormented the Sacramento Kings, in particular, for more than 10 years now.  The athlete who is so good in the clutch that, even though it may hurt deep inside, you have to respect for his guts and corresponding success.  Or so it seems.

Henry Abbott's ESPN blog this week calls into question Kobe's apparent status as the king of clutch for this generation.  The stats are quite interesting.  When trailing by one or two points in all games since 1996-97, Kobe has attempted 115 shots, more than anybody else; he has made more than anyone else in the process (36), but also missed more than anyone else (79).  (Kings fans, note that Mike Bibby and Chris Webber both shoot a higher percentage in these situations than Kobe.)

Abbott extends these findings to argue that Kobe's domination of the ball in the clutch hurts his team, since he takes (and misses) so many shots, even suggesting that in doing so he goes against the wishes of his coach, Phil Jackson.  I, however (for fear of making a Kobe-sympathetic argument) highly doubt this is the case.  I do seem to remember Jackson commenting publicly earlier this year that he asks the Lakers to run the offense more consistently through Kobe during parts the second half, and/or when the team is behind (if anyone remembers/can unearth his comments on this, let me know).

The Lakers have won several championships, after all, with Kobe as their crunch time leader.  It's hard to argue with that.  Stats are great (nobody knows this more than I do!) but wins and championships are always the ultimate measure of success.

More than this, doesn't it seem like all NBA teams pass the ball around less in clutch situations?  I'd love to see some stats on assist-to-turnover ratios at crunch time, or simply the number of assists per possession at the end of close games compared to possessions earlier in the game.  Having watched enough basketball over the years, I get the feeling that league coaches must meet during the off-season and agree to stop passing the ball during these crucial possessions.  In other words, it's not just Kobe; I'm betting that down by one with 20 seconds left, the Cavaliers are just as likely to have Mo Williams dribble around for 18 seconds and then launch a shot of his choice.

Is this a bad game plan?  (Well, if you're the Cavaliers, probably.)  But maybe Kobe is on to something: indeed, do turnovers per possession go up at the end of the game as well?  A possession that involves five passes is inherently more risky; everyone that touches the ball has to be mentally prepared for success in the clutch, whereas the Kobe game plan relies only on Kobe, and therefore may be safer.  Abbott's stats reveal that field goal percentages are certainly lower in the clutch (29.7% across the league, yikes!) than earlier in the game, so maybe turnovers are up as well.  Or, maybe excessive use of the Kobe game plan is at fault for such terrible shooting numbers around the league.  Further investigation is needed, for sure.

For now, I'm just happy Kobe and the Lakers let the Kings steal one for a change last night...